Essence of the Strategy
The Miller Strategy (also called the Plateau Scheme) emphasizes proper bankroll management. Players place bets on balanced odds.
True even odds are rare with bookmakers, so Miller advises betting on odds between 1.85 and 2.10. For example, with odds of 1.91, a bettor must correctly predict at least 52.4% of outcomes to achieve profitability. The stake amount remains fixed and does not exceed 1% of the bankroll. If the stake size surpasses this percentage, even a success rate of 56% over time will lead to financial losses.
Miller criticized strategies that involve increasing or decreasing stake sizes based on previous wins or losses. He argued that streaks of wins or losses only exist in hindsight—no one can predict the outcome of the next event.
Principles of the Strategy
The foundation of Miller's strategy is ensuring break-even outcomes. With a success rate of 56% on balanced odds of 1.85–1.85, a player will profit less than 50% of the time. Miller asserts that placing bets exceeding 1% of the bankroll leads to bankruptcy.
Using the Miller Strategy, a player can achieve profitability at a 56% win rate. The key lies in capital turnover. For instance, if a bettor places 1,000 bets in a year at 1% of their bankroll per bet, the annual turnover will amount to 1,000% of the initial bankroll. With a 56% win rate, every $10,000 wagered will yield $760 in profit. The net annual profit would thus be 76% of the bankroll. Financial Management in Miller's Strategy
Bet Size: Each wager is set at 1% of the initial bankroll.
Adjustment on Bankroll Growth: When the bankroll increases by 25%, the bet size is recalculated based on the new bankroll. For example, if the initial bankroll is $10,000 and the bet size is $100, after a 25% increase to $12,500, the new bet size becomes 1% of $12,500, or $125. With each subsequent 25% increase in the bankroll, the bet size also grows proportionally.
With a 56% win rate, Miller's financial management ensures a net profit of 100% of the starting bankroll over time.
Core Concept:The strategy involves flat betting until the expected bankroll growth (plateau) is reached, recalculating the bet size, and continuing with the new flat betting amount until the next level is achieved. Miller's approach focuses on long-term profitability through disciplined bankroll management. Drawbacks of Miller's Strategy
Limited to Binary Outcomes: The strategy is applicable only to events with two possible outcomes, such as Home Win or Away Win (T1 or T2), Over or Under total, Even or Odd scores.
Odds Requirements: The odds must be no lower than 1.85. However, as the odds increase, the likelihood of a successful bet decreases.
High Accuracy Threshold: A minimum win rate of 56% is required to maintain profitability.
Smart Total Calculation Using Miller's Strategy
In his book "How Professional Gamblers Beat the Point Spread in Professional Football," J.R. Miller provides an example using American football. This method can also be adapted for traditional soccer (football). Example
Let's take a match between Team A and Team B.
Analyze the last four games of Team A: For instance, scores could be 2-1, 4-2, 1-1, 1-1.
Calculate the attack rating for Team A:
Exclude the highest and lowest scores from these games (4 and 1).
Add the remaining scores (2+1) and divide by 2.
Attack rating for Team A = (2+1) / 2 = 1.5
Calculate the defense rating for Team A:
Exclude the highest and lowest number of goals conceded in these games (2 and 1).
Add the remaining scores and divide by 2.
Defense Rating for Team A:
Defense rating = (1+1) / 2 = 1
Similarly, calculate the attack and defense ratings for Team B. For example:
Attack rating for Team B = 0.5
Defense rating for Team B = 1
Now, sum the attack rating of Team A with the defense rating of Team B:1.5 + 1 = 2.5. Then subtract the attack rating of Team A:2.5 - 1.5 = 1 – expected goals for Team A in the match.
Next, sum the attack rating of Team B with the defense rating of Team A:0.5 + 1 = 1.5. Then subtract the defense rating of Team A:1.5 - 1.5 = 0 – expected goals for Team B in the match.
Final result: Predicted score: 1-0 in favor of Team A, total under 2.5, outcome – T1. If the resulting values are 1.5-0.5, 2.5-0.5, or 1.5-1.5, it is recommended to skip the event and proceed to analyze the next game.
